Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Dorian, Other Tropical Trouble, Stormy Vermont/New England

Complete devastation in the Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian
It wasn't the most pleasant of mornings to wake up to in St. Albans, Vermont. When I took the dogs out, winds were gusting to about 40 mph, taking down some small branches. It was thundering, and then rained right after the dogs came back in.

It will be a relatively stormy day in Vermont and New England. Nothing like Hurricane Dorian, though. More on that further down.

Most of the showers and storms in the northwestern half of Vermont and into New York will be this rnorning and early afternoon.  A couple storms might be on the strong side in this area, but nothing really severe is expected.

In fact, as of shortly before 9 a.m. a strong storm was right near me in St. Albans. There's fairly frequent lightning and the National Weather Service in South Burlington says the storm has some gusts to maybe 40 mph or a little more with it. A similar strong storm was about to move into Burlington at that hour.

There's better instability further east, so as the weather moves across Vermont and into the rest of New England, some strong to severe storms are possible in the southeastern half of Vermont this afternoon.

These chances of severe storms extend across much of New Hampshire, southwestern Maine, southern New England and southeastern New York. Most of the risk in this entire area is from strong straight line winds. However, there could be a supercell or two, notes the NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, leading to a very slight chance of a tornado.

All this goes away later today and tonight and the weather looks calm for us here in Vermont for the next several days starting tomorrow. That calm weather forecast isn't true for everywhere in the United States, as we well know.

HURRICANE DORIAN

After causing its terrible destruction in the Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian continues to limp northward. Tropical storm and hurricane warnings were finally all ended for the Bahamas this morning. Recovery can begin there, but it's going to be a long and painful road. Aerial views of places like the Abaco Islands show total devastation.

The official death toll is seven, but people are sure there are many more casualties.  Conditions are only now getting calm enough to search. Video is at the bottom of this post.

Dorian was positioned about 95 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida early this morning, says the National Hurricane Center. Top winds were down to about 105 mph, which is still terrible, but not like the 185 mph it had in the Bahamas.

The hurricane, as is typical for ones heading north like this, has gotten larger in size.  That means gusty winds, high tides and occasionally heavy rain is sweeping across northeastern Florida.

Dorian is still expected to skirt the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas through Friday, and might touch shore in the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday. So it's still a pretty serious threat through the end of the week.

It looks like the most damage from Dorian from here on out will be storm surges and high tides, especially in the Carolinas. 

After that, Dorian will finally accelerate off to the northeast, missing New England but probably hitting parts of Nova Scotia Newfoundland as a strong storm losing its tropical characteristics but still having top winds of 70 mph or more.

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE

We're in the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, so there's a lot of other stuff going on out there besides Dorian.

Tropical Storm Fernand formed in the western Gulf of Mexico yesterday. It won't get that big, but could cause flooding in the next day or two as it comes ashore in northeastern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle got going this morning way out over the open central Atlantic Ocean. It, too, probably won't get very strong and poses no immediate threat to land.

Another system near Bermuda might form into a tropical storm in a couple of days. Forecasters are also watching  disturbance come off the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic which could eventually spell trouble.

Videos:

Footage from helicopter shows complete destruction:



View from a hurricane hunter plane inside the eye of Dorian during its peak:

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