Vermont Update: Wind To Diminish; Snow To Come, Then The Cold

I'll have lots of twigs and small branches to pick up from my
St. Albans, Vermont yard today. Winds here early this morning gusted
to at least 45 mph. This photo is just one small corner of my
yard. At least there's no large fallen branches or trees.

As expected, a little snow, mixed in some areas with a bit of sleet and maybe a bit of freezing drizzle, swept across northern New York and Vermont early this morning. Accumulations were very light.

A bit more snow or a  mix might come down the rest of this morning, but this is no big deal.

However, all that wind we've had this morning, especially in the Champlain Valley, is a clue to the active weather we're having through Thursday.

"Active" does not imply a huge storm, but it's going to be inclement to say the least for a couple days.

There's a good deal of energy in the atmosphere, thanks to that busy, fast, generally west-to-east jet stream I talked about yesterday. The Northeast is being affected by a lot of that energy in the atmosphere, leading to wind, precipitation, and, at least out in Ohio, some locally strong thunderstorms. That's pretty far north for that type of thing in the depths of winter.

That there are those strong storms forecast in Ohio is another indication of how the atmosphere is roiled. It's just that there's not a great moisture supply, so nobody will get any especially heavy precipitation out of this storminess.

Winds early this morning in this roiled atmosphere have been gusting as high as 60 mph on Burton Island in Lake Champlain and 56 mph in Alburgh.  Many gusts of 45  mph were reported a bit more inland from the lake. That's enough to cause a smattering of power failures in Chittenden and Franklin counties. My yard in gusty St. Albans, Vermont is now littered with plenty of twigs and small branches.

The winds should diminish this afternoon while we're in a break in the precipitation.

More weather coming in from the west should arrive tonight. It will be mild, so the Champlain Valley and southern low elevations in Vermont should start off with a mix of rain and snow. Mid and high elevations will get into some wet snow tonight.

Precipitation will gradually become all snow everywhere Wednesday as cold air finally begins to bleed in from the north. Snow showers will gradually lighten up during later Wednesday night and Thursday, but keep going, especially in the mountains.

This looks like a terrific situation for snow lovers in the Green Mountains and along the western slopes. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks look like winners in this upcoming situation, too.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get many reports of six inches or more of new powder in these locations by Thursday morning. A few spot locations in the mountains could approach a foot of new accumulation. (Look out, Jay Peak!)

Early indications are most of the rest of the northern half to two thirds of Vermont is in for three to eight inches of fresh powder, with maybe a little less in the central and southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont lowlands, where some rain will fall tonight and Wednesday morning.

A pretty good chunk of Arctic air is still forecast to break off from the frigid icebox of central and northern Canada and makes its way into New England.

The bad news is this will be the strongest cold wave so far this winter in Vermont and the rest of New England. The good news is this won't be anything extreme for January.

Friday through Sunday, expect high temperatures in the single numbers and teens region wide (coldest on Friday).  Lows will be below zero each day, with the coldest hollows getting close to 20 below.

Forecasters are still watching for a remote possibillity of a coastal storm later Sunday or Monday, but that to me and many others is looking very doubtful at best.

Temperatures should bump back up to near normal early next week.