Tuesday, November 27, 2018

It Will Keep Snowing In Parts Of Northern New England Through Wednesday

1:50 PM TUESDAY UPDATE:
Nearly 7 inches of new, heavy, wet snow weighs down trees in
my St. Albans, Vermont yard this afternoon. 

Boy, this storm in Vermont really has been overperforming, especially in the Champlain Valley of Vermont.

The current snowstorm has unexpectedly taken over a the Green Mountain State's worst snowstorm so far this young season.

It's also probably one of the worst storms of any stripe in 2018 here in Vermont.

The problem has been the wet, heavy quality of the snow. We're accustomed to snow with a powdery consistency this far inland from the coast, but every once in awhile, we get hit the the face with slush.

Such is the case this time. The power failures have really been incredible - and dangerous - in Vermont. A good 38,000 or more homes and businesses were without electricity in Vermont as of 1:30 p.m. today and that number has been going up since early this morning. This, despite the best efforts of lots of power company crews trying to get a handle on things.

But as the snow continues to fall, they fix one problem, and then three more trees or branches fall and take out more power lines. This will only slowly get better as snow tapers off in southern Vermont, and starts to fall at a slower pace in most of northern Vermont. Plus, it will get a little cooler tonight, so the snow won't be as wet and heavy.

It will take a long time for everything to get fixed, probably days in some areas. It got so bad on Route 100 between Killington and Pittsfield that they had to close the road today. Trees were falling across the road faster than anybody could clean them up. Other Vermont roads were close off and on or the same reason - trees and power lines blocked them.

The town of Randolph has opened a warming shelter for those whose homes are cold and dark from the extended power outages that are expected to continue. More shelters might open, depending upon how fast electricity is restored.

Even in the Champlain Valley, enough wet snow has fallen to cause power problems. At my house in St. Albans,  we had 6.7 inches of wet snow as of 1:30 p.m. and it's still coming down. This is much more than expected. Trees are sagging dangerously. There's lots of power failures in Chittenden County, too.

I have a quibble with the usually excellent National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont. As it became apparent that the storm would be worse in the Champlain Valley than expected after dawn today, there still held fast to not issuing any winter weather advisories or storm warnings for that area. (Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories were correctly in effect for other parts of the state.)

The roads were a mess, the snow was coming down hard. They should have issued something to underscore the relative severity of the situation. The NWS South Burlington did issue an winter weather advisory for the Champlain Valley as of 12:41 p.m. today to highlight the snowfall that is expected to continue into the evening.

Snow totals are impressive, and they will become more impressive in some parts of Vermont, especially in the north as the storm will focus there from now on.  There's 13 inches of new snow in Wilmington and Woodford, in far southern Vermont. A foot of new snow was reported in Woodstock with 10 inches in Rochester and Reading.

There will be even more impressive totals to report by tomorrow and Thursday in the mid and high elevations in the northern half of Vermont, particularly along the western slopes of the Greens.

The snowfall is gradually becoming more oriented toward falling on the mountains. Even as snowfall rate continue to decline in the Champlain Valley, it'll keep cranking in the mountains, especially between Jay Peak and Killington.

I will not be surprised to see new snow totals near two feet in some locations.

For those commuting home this evening, expect a slushy, slippery trip. Southern Vermont is getting better, but at least light snow will still be coming down in the northern half of Vermont as darkness falls.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Kind of a Currier and Ives scene in Burlington Vermont's Intervale
this morning as yet another early season snowstorm hit.
Skiers and riders are probably rejoicing because the current snowfall in northern New England is expected to keep cranking through Wednesday in northern New England - at least in the mountains.

The storm as of the pre-dawn hours is working out about as forecast, with quite a bit of snow in the mountains, with rain and a mix in many of the warmer valleys of Vermont.  

Snow accumulation reports were sparse as of 7 a.m., but we'll get more in. The heaviest snow accumulation is in southern Vermont, though northern Vermont will get much more snow than the south from now through Wednesday night.

So far, 10 inches of new snow have been reported from Windsor, Reading and Wilmington, Vermont. To the north, high elevation East Barre has collected 5.4 inches so far.

It's a heavy, wet snow in most areas, and that spells big trouble. Vermont's power grid as of early Tuesday morning has been hit hard, especially in southern, eastern and eastern sections of the Green Mountain State. The wet snow is bringing down trees and power lines.

More than 19,000 Vermont homes and businesses had no power as of 7:15 a.m. Tuesday, and that number was rising.  New England wide, 40,000 were without electricity, NECN reported.

Web cam images out of central and southern Vermont show trees heavily laden down with snow.

Where it's snowing, which by now is pretty much everywhere,   Wet snow compacts under car tires to form an especially slick ice, so take it slow on the way to work or school today. As usual, the storm timing in the busy Champlain Valley is terrible.

A slushy commute into work this morning as wet snow
fell and clung to trees. Wet snow is more slick that powdery
snow on roads.
Rain transitioned to a heavy, wet snow just before the rush hour began. Conditions deteriorated rapidly as I made my way down Interstate 89 from St. Albans to Burlington at around 6:30 a.m. 

Yesterday, I suspected an area of somewhat heavier snow would blossom in time for the morning rush in the Champlain Valley and it looks like that materialized. 

If possible, don't even go to work today. Do your stuff from home. As for schools, a lot of them are closed anyway.  .

The storm along the New England coast is taking over, and will move northward into Maine, then sort of stall and gradually weaken. As it does, the snow will keep going in northern Vermont and parts of New Hampshire and Maine, plus areas of southern Quebec and northern New York through Wednesday.

Which to some people (Read: Me) is a real nuisance because you have to repeatedly shovel the snow away over the course of two or three days.

The valleys of southern Vermont won't get much more snow. In the Champlain Valley, temperatures will be close to or just above freezing this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, which would limit the snow accumulation.

There might be another inch or two in parts of the Champlain Valley today, another couple of inches tonight, and maybe an inch or so on Wednesday, for a total of maybe two to five inches by Wednedsay night.

Move just a little up in elevation, though, and the snow gets much deeper. Go up into the western slopes and peaks of the Green Mountains, and I wouldn't be surprised if another foot of snow comes down in some areas by Wednesday night. This is on top of what already fell overnight.

Drive the short distance from Burlington, Vermont to say, Underhill in the shadow of Mount Mansfield tomorrow,  and you'll go from a slushy meh snow cover to a deep, heart-attack snow.

Much of western Maine and parts of northern New Hampshire can expect another foot of snow, too,

Since there was already a pretty good snow cover in the higher elevations before this storm, things are getting pretty incredible for early season winter sports types.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom will get a fair amount of new snow, too. Most of that area has so far missed out on the heaviest snow, because the White Mountains of New Hampshire blocked a lot of the moisture being carried into the region on east winds.

Things will calm down temporarily toward the end of the week, but it looks like a new storm is brewing for late Saturday or Sunday. It's too early to tell how much and what type of precipitation we'll get out of that one.

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