Active Weather Memorial Day Weekend Unfolding Nationwide

Subtropical Storm Alberto is still disorganized in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, thunderstorms are getting
more concentrated in the storm northwest of Cuba,
which means it's more organized than yesteray. 

There's quite a lot of weather excitement going on across the nation this Memorial Day weekend.

Some people are girding for storms, even a tropical storm. Other areas are flooding, and yet others are getting blasted by mid-summer, record heat. At least the sun is out in those hot locations.

I'll start with the biggest news first:

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO

Alberto was looking somewhat more organized in the Gulf of Mexico this morning as it heads toward landfall along the Florida Panhandle sometime on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are still only 50 mph, and they'll only strengthen a little more before landfall. But as I noted yesterday, the wind isn't the main worry from this thing anyway. It's the flooding.

First, along the coast in the Florida Panhandle, a storm surge of two to four feet will put some coastal streets and buildings under water. Worse, as the storm comes in, the downpours will be fierce. That's especially true around northwestern Florida, southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Four to eight inches of rain is likely in this zone, with locally higher amounts. It has already been raining in some of these areas quite a bit lately, so that enhances the flooding potential.

The storm, or its remnants, are expected to head up through the Midwest during the week, ending up in Michigan or thereabouts Thursday and near Toronto, Canada by Friday.

A large, severe thunderstorm at sunset in Houston, Texas
Saturday evening. Photo by Christopher Ramirez. Severe
storms are possible in the U.S. High Plains today. 

Alberto, or ex-Alberto, will carry a swath of heavy downpours with it all the way to Ontario, though by the time it gets that far north, I don't think it will cause that much flooding. It's punch will almost certainly be diminished by then.

OTHER FLOODING

Alberto isn't the only thing that's creating flooding in the nation. Slow moving weather fronts in the East are also causing high water problems, or at least the potential for it in the East.

Today, a cold front that drifted down from New England stalled around New Jersey, unleashing downpours there. Up to five inches of rain had fallen in New Jersey by mid-morning, and it was still coming down. Flash flood and flood warnings are up for much of that state.

Flash flood watches extend down to parts of Maryland, Delaware, Washington DC and Virginia. That stalled front up in New Jersey could easily contribute to torrential thunderstorms in these areas this afternoon. It's been raining an awful lot in the Mid-Atlantic this month, so it won't take much to create high water.

Tropical moisture streaming north, in part because of Alberto, is streaming into the Carolinas, so flash flood watches are in effect there, too. 

Elsewhere, parts of Wyoming and extreme western South Dakota are also under flash flood watches because of expected slow moving, and potentially severe thunderstorms later today. I suspect the heavy rains might extend into North Dakota later this week, possibly causing flooding problems there, too.

SEVERE STORMS

Severe storms (in yellow) associated with Florida with
Alberto and in the High Plains as a cold front
approaches record heat. 

Scattered dangerous thunderstorms are likely in the western High Plains from Wyoming and South Dakota, down into western Kansas, eastern Colorado, western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle.  

A few supercells might spin off a tornado or two today, but the main threats are giant hailstones, strong winds and flash floods with these storms.

Tomorrow, as a cold front starts to impinge on record heat in the Upper Plains and Midwest (I'll get to the heat in a minute.) severe storms are expected to break out in much of the northern and central Plains. 

RECORD HEAT

A big early season heat wave is baking a large area from Texas all the way up through the Plains and into the Midwest, including the cities of Minneapolis, Chicago, St. Louis, Sioux Falls, Des Moines, Omaha and Wichita.

I'm at my temporary headquarters in Yankton, South Dakota, and I can testify it's HOT!  We're under a heat advisory here, and it could be 100 degrees this afternoon. It was 97 degrees here yesterday.

Several places in this region have a decent shot of reaching 100 degrees, which is particularly rare in May. It did make it to 100 degrees in Omaha, Nebraska yesterday.

This is among the strongest and longest lasting heat waves on record in the Upper Midwest. Although it will cool off some after Monday, it will stay much warmer than normal.

NO DRAMA VERMONT

Back in Vermont, there are no extremes this weekend like in so much of the rest of the nation. That cold front which is contributing to the flooding in New Jersey slipped through Vermont yesterday with some clouds and showers.

It's cool north of that front today in Vermont, but rain - if any - will be spotty and light today. It'll be cool-ish, especially east of the Green Mountains today.

Showers will be around here and there in Vermont on Monday, Memorial Day. But there will also be some sun, and it will be seasonably warm.

Not perfect weather for the Memorial Day weekend, but the no drama aspect of the weather is certainly welcome.